In 2017, Livongo presented at the Annual American Diabetes Association’s Scientific Sessions showing that it decreased costs by 5.8 percent compared to non-Livongo users, helping save US$83 per participant per month.23. Express Scripts, for example, has established a digital formulary that evaluates digital interventions based on clinical research, usability, and financial value.16 Livongo’s digital therapeutics for diabetes, prediabetes, and hypertension have received preferred formulary status (see the sidebar, “New digital therapeutics help patients manage their chronic diseases”). Go straight to smart. Twenty years from now, rather than picking up a prescription at the pharmacy, personalized therapies based on a diverse set of a patient’s characteristics including their genomics, metabolome, microbiome, and other clinical information might be manufactured or compounded just in time through additive manufacturing. Innovation starts with insight and seeing challenges in a new way. One interviewee suggested that applications of this technology could expand beyond oncology into autoimmune diseases. The goal of harnessing these technologies will be to avoid the relatively high production cost and low efficiency inherent in conventional methods of drug production. View in article, Alliance for Regenerative Medicine, “Clinical trials: Q3 2019,” accessed February 25, 2020. These interventions might be poised to reduce the need for major classes of drugs such as chemotherapy, insulin, and drugs for inflammatory conditions. Further, additive manufacturing could lead to new ways of delivering drugs. One interviewee said he expects to “see cures for diseases that are well-defined by genetic mutations based on better gene therapy.” Such diseases could include cystic fibrosis, sickle cell disease, fragile X syndrome, muscular dystrophy, and Huntington’s disease. Active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) could be combined at the point of care, allowing for customized therapies. The changes that we see on the horizon will likely require biopharma companies to consider new types of markets, alternative business models, or a complete change in how they define what work they do. Since the outbreak, retail of over-the-counter drugs spiked before lockdowns in March 2020 as consumers stockpiled these drugs. We look forward to reporting about innovative approaches and lessons learned from this situation. FabRX’s proprietary technology, Printlets, offers personalized dosages, polypills, chewable medicines, and fast-dissolving tablets.11. Some of these digital interventions have been FDA-approved and health plans and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) are paying for them. “This idea might be science fiction today, but 20 years from now, some pharmaceutical companies might have stem cell transplant centers.” Magenta Therapeutics is an example of a company that is working on this today. Then, Covid-19 happened and threw us a curveball that will likely impact all existing forecasts. In fact, the genetic testing market is expected to reach US$17.6 million by 2025 with a CAGR of 11.3 percent.4 Early detection of a disease, or the ability to determine who might be genetically predisposed to a disease, could make it possible to cure an illness in the early stages or prevent it altogether. “Using pharmaceutical industry data, we show that acquired drug projects are less likely to be. 2: Personalized or customized treatment. She conducts primary and secondary research and analysis on emerging trends, challenges, and opportunities within the health care system. Diagnostics, and their resulting data, are likely to become powerful tools going forward. For example, data on how a patient metabolizes a drug could be used to ensure he/she gets the precise dose that will optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. View in article, BiopharmaTrend.com, “Big investments for human microbiome research,” April 25, 2019. Our interviews confirmed that five forces are beginning to impact biopharma companies but are likely to disrupt the sector more dramatically in the years ahead. Vaccines: Vaccines are being developed that include but expand beyond childhood or common infectious diseases. Tom Yang is a principal and assists biopharma and biotech executives deliver growth strategies that adapt to the ever-evolving life sciences and health care landscape. Cell therapies: Adoptive cell transfer (ACT) therapy is driving research and development activity among many biopharma companies. Organizations that ignore these forces and maintain the status quo could wind up shrinking in parallel to the demand for drug interventions to manage symptomatic diseases. Instead of making medications for diseases, they will make medications that work for the individual patients taking us and our specific needs into account. Arnold & Porter LLP, Washington, DC, USA. By 2040 (and perhaps beginning much before), streams of health data—together with data from a variety of other relevant sources—will likely merge to create a multifaceted and highly personalized picture of every consumer’s well-being. View in article, Philip D. Greenberg, “How cellular immunotherapies are changing the outlook for cancer patients,” Cancer Research Institute, accessed February 25, 2020. They also noted that earlier detection of a disease—or an understanding that a disease might be avoidable—could motivate people to adopt healthier lifestyles. The vast majority of patients may not receive the full potential benefit of drugs that they are treated with because we don’t yet know how to effectively stratify patient populations, one interviewee noted. View in article, Livongo, “Case study: Livongo demonstrates cost savings,” accessed February 25, 2020. The biotechnology industry continues to deliver innovative drugs as it moves from being a technology-driven to a product-driven industry. One physician interviewee predicted, “We will be giving patients one pill with everything rather than a number of pills.” She noted that this a common patient pain point that physicians often don’t see. Future Prospects. The forces of change highlighted in this paper are likely to reshape, if not shrink, the market for biopharma products. The ability to enhance existing systems, both internal and external facing, will create unprecedented Sales volumes for drugs across disease areas are likely to decline due to more effective prevention, greater stratification of disease, better tailoring of drug regimens for patients, an increase in curative therapies, behavioral intervention, and advanced medical procedures. Maura Cassidy provided valuable insight into the interview outreach and the analysis of both primary and secondary research and market trends. As one interviewee pointed out, “There is no way to determine why some people develop rheumatoid arthritis and some people don’t.” But the groundwork is already being laid for a world with a greater ability to detect and prevent disease. Emphasis on strategically working with regulators to reduce or at least stabilize prices for vulnerable populations continue to occupy regulators in the U.S. and worldwide.”, “A major focus of Pharma going forward will be a move toward instituting new manufacturing technologies to produce biologic drugs and vaccines. The credit crunch has increased cost pressures on the pharmaceutical industry, Capgemini suggests that part of its response could be to open up a dialogue about the wider healthcare agenda. Digital therapeutics: Increasingly effective and scalable nonpharmaceutical (digital) interventions—including those focused on behavior modification—might also reduce or eliminate demand for medications. THE FUTURE OF THE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY Aïmane El BOUAZZAOUI Stojana TADIC 5th year of Pharmaceutical Studies Faculty of Pharmacy, Montpellier University December 2014 2. 1: Prediction and early detection, Force no. Reports indicate that by 2020 the global pharmaceutical market will more than double to around US$1.3 trillion, with Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey accounting for 1/5th of global pharmaceutical sales.. The platform focuses on multiple conditions, including diabetes, prediabetes, weight management, hypertension, and behavioral health. What are some examples of disruption already happening in the market, and how quickly is change likely to occur? Pharmaceutical companies may deal in generic or brand medications and medical devices. DTTL (also referred to as "Deloitte Global") does not provide services to clients. In the face of these five forces, biopharma companies should ask themselves: By 2040, some diseases will be prevented, cured, or managed with nonpharmacological interventions. Some interviewees were skeptical of the long-term adoption, or stickiness, of digital therapeutics. Other interviewees countered that if the digital experience is user-friendly, includes a human touch when necessary, incorporates storytelling (rather than commands), and truly understands the motivations for each patient (whether that be more free time, better health, or something else), adoption will likely continue to grow. Another interviewee told us that CRISPR has been used to destroy viruses and bacterial infections. Neal Batra, David Betts, and Steve Davis, Forces of change: The future of health, Deloitte Insights, April 30, 2019. Advances in robotic surgery have made it possible to remove a tumor wrapped around the spinal cord, for example, and eliminate or reduce the need for chemotherapy. There will be increased attention to cost and abrupt cost increases. “At present, large pharma companies develop medicines in two principal ways. View in article, Amy Dockser Marcus, “A genetic test led seven women in one family to have major surgery. Modern medicine is nothing short of miraculous, especially compared with the medicine of even a decade or two ago. Some manufacturers might forge partnerships directly with health systems or consortiums to supply them with products. Nanotechnology: Microscopic nanotechnology particles have the potential to enter diseased tissues and deliver more targeted and precise medical interventions. Digital therapeutics that reduce the need for pharmaceutical intervention: Digital therapeutics are increasing access to medical providers, which could reduce the need for drug treatments. to receive more business insights, analysis, and perspectives from Deloitte Insights, Telecommunications, Media & Entertainment, Researchers develop microneedle patch for flu vaccination, A genetic test led seven women in one family to have major surgery. Real-time tracking of drug therapy and symptoms allow doctors and coaches to intervene and modify therapy before symptoms escalate. See Terms of Use for more information. Social login not available on Microsoft Edge browser at this time. In terms of the global market, India currently holds a modest 1-2% share, … Companies will likely need to develop sophisticated methods for monitoring post-treatment patients to help shape the value story. Discover Deloitte and learn more about our people and culture. 377–88. View in article, Economist, “A research team builds robots from living cells,” January 16, 2020. Christine Chang, MPH, is a research manager with the Deloitte Center for Health Solutions, Deloitte Services LP. This includes advances in robotic surgery, nanotechnology, and tissue engineering. Some of our interviewees noted that the ability to use genetic information to identify patients at risk for developing disease could create an opportunity for biopharma companies. View in article, Sriram Renganathan, “The battle against drugs—3D printing drugs: The latest advancements,” All3DP, February 23, 2019. During the next 20 years, biopharma companies might get close to the process of sourcing these raw materials and could consider using them to treat disease. Developing, marketing, and pricing these curative treatments could require the biopharma sector to adopt new capabilities. How might exponential advancements in science and technology impact biopharma companies? Change isn't just coming. It is too early to opine on the timing and impact of those activities and how the forces we describe in this paper might accelerate or change how biopharma responds to pandemics in the future. The surgeries, which led to complications, might not have been necessary. has been saved, The future of biopharma
Sonal has a Master of Business Administration in health care management from the Wharton School, and a Doctor of Pharmacy from the Rutgers University Ernest Mario School of Pharmacy. The availability of data and personalized AI can enable precision well-being and real-time microinterventions that allow us to get ahead of sickness and far ahead of catastrophic disease. We define a customized treatment as a single therapy, or mix of therapies, that is selected, tailored, or developed to treat an individual. A note to readers: This research was conducted before the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) became a focus for drug and vaccine development. research-based pharmaceutical industry is entering an exciting new era in medicines development. Our US Health Care practice helps clients transform uncertainty into possibility and rapid change into lasting progress. Unlike today, we believe care will be organized around the consumer, rather than around the institutions that drive our existing health care system. when the acquirer's market power is large due to weak competition or distant patent. Based on emerging technology, we can be reasonably certain that digital transformation—enabled by radically interoperable data, AI, and open, secure platforms—will drive much of this change. Stratifying disease to target the best drug intervention: Advances in the understanding of biomarkers and genetic markers have helped researchers identify subpopulations within broader disease categories. While biopharma is at the forefront of developing these treatments, keeping pace with a rapidly changing environment will likely require new business models. Moreover, one of our interviewees suggested that physicians of the future might be writing prescriptions for healthy food18 and walks outside.19 This increased awareness of well-being, combined with digital therapeutics, could help consumers stay healthy. Search for more papers by this author. A liquid biopsy, for example, can help identify cancer cells by testing a sample of blood. With unlimited access to information, patients are more knowledgeable than ever before, making healthcare providers more informed, and therefore better equipped to manage a disease or even avoid it altogether. technologies, the pharmaceutical industry needs to reimagine its future. Future of work; Industry 4.0; Internet of Things; US business impact of COVID-19; Careers . Considerations:Our understanding of what drives disease is continually evolving, and some diseases don’t have a clear underlying cause. One academic researcher told us that we might be able to cure cancer subtypes that are caused by specific oncogenes passed down in families, such as BRCA. Email a customized link that shows your highlighted text. Pharma companies should learn to leverage the insights that come from these technologies to develop pathways and treatments for early intervention. Two therapies using this technology have been approved in the United States, and many more are in development.15 These therapies could treat previously difficult-to-treat late-stage cancers and have led to high rates of remission. developed when they overlap with the acquirer's existing product portfolio, especially. Exclusive market research and insights from leading thought leaders on the front lines of their industry. Considerations: Curative therapies will likely require new business models that address the shift in cost from chronic treatment to a one-time treatment. She supports Deloitte’s Life Sciences and Health Care practice across all sectors and has written on topics including innovation, value-based care, and emerging technologies. View in article, Business Wire, “Global human microbiome market analysis & forecast, 2020—The market was valued at USD 351.81 million in 2018,” February 6, 2020. Our interviewees suggested that other chronic diseases, such as Alzheimer’s disease, diabetes, and rheumatoid arthritis, might be treated more effectively if they are identified early. Most of our interviewees agreed with our vision for the future of health that these forces—driven by players inside and outside of the biopharma sector—could have a seismic impact on biopharmaceutical companies and the patients they serve. The authors would like to thank Neal Batra, Tom Fezza, Mike Delone, Hanno Ronte, Anand Parikh, Claire Cruise, Ramani Moses, Laura DeSimio, and the many others who contributed their ideas and insights to this project. The five forces described above should push biopharma companies to ask themselves some hard questions about the markets they are in and how the threat of disruption could impact them. He cautioned that there are many safety concerns with this approach and said it could be difficult to replace the gene in all of a person’s cancer-causing cells. View in article, Zheng P., Li Z., and Zhou Z., “Gut microbiome in type 1 diabetes: A comprehensive view,” Diabetes/Metabolism Research and Reviews 34, no. medicines among the patient population could result.”, “The future of Pharma is digitization and consolidation. © 2021. Biopharma companies might be able to develop or target therapies to the unique characteristics of each subpopulation. Please see www.deloitte.com/about to learn more about our global network of member firms. “We’ll be able to fix it, regenerate tissue, or grow replacements, perhaps through xenotransplantation,” he predicted. The current model of selling therapies that treat symptoms or mitigate the progression of chronic diseases is no longer viable. The Future of Pharmaceutical Product Development and Research examines the latest developments in the pharmaceutical sciences, also highlighting key developments, research and future opportunities. AI might be used to spot biomarkers that would indicate a potential change in health status before symptoms appear. Researchers at the University of Vermont and Tufts University have designed organic robots by joining together specific types of stem cells taken from a well-studied species of African frog, Xenopus laevis. Internal capabilities. ”, global wellness trends, challenges, and offers some predictions for the future of pharma digitization! Of pharmaceuticals well-documented, one question remains: where does pharma go from?... Disease in its earliest stages be tremendous, but data will be a world apart what! 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Patients through software programs that help prevent, manage, or stickiness, of digital therapeutics and! Of Pennsylvania School of medicine, curative therapies: as with prevention, treatments that cure disease could reduce even. Precise medical interventions said that CRISPR can be produced through 3D printing bearing on the front of. Will grow to 20 % of the prescription drug purchases are for generics, according to the next years!, and some diseases from happening, and curing others 's a trained journalist with experience the! Expect it will, we could see some consolidation among generic-drug manufacturers, nanotechnology, and then we ’ likely! How the cost and abrupt cost increases not shrink, the era of blockbuster drugs that treat symptoms or the. Blockbuster drugs that treat large populations will likely require new business models 2040., Livongo, “ a research team builds robots from living cells, ” one. 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